China's 5G makes the United States nervous. What impact will China have on the United States if it wins the 5G war?

The competition between China and the United States has motivated the United States to develop 5G, and even if the United States ranks second or third in this field, it will not have a significant long-term impact on the US economy.

Recently, the online version of Wired magazine in the United States published an article analyzing the potential impact of China's leading construction of 5G networks on the United States.

The following is the main content of the article:

The technical standards for the next generation of mobile services have not yet been finalized, but China and the United States have begun to compete in deploying 5G networks.

At least that's what the US government and US operators say. The United States will not have a second chance to win the global 5G war, "warned Meredith Attwell Baker, President and CEO of CTIA, a wireless industry organization, in April of this year. The organization's report at the time stated that the United States was lagging behind China and South Korea in preparing for 5G networks.

The report suggests that if this cannot be changed, the US economy will suffer.

This report is consistent with the views expressed in the previously leaked National Security Council document, which suggested that the US government consider building a 5G network. The report believes that if China dominates the telecommunications network industry, it will achieve political, economic, and military victories.

The Democratic Party is also concerned about this issue. Jessica Rosenworcel, a Democrat from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), wrote a column on TechCrunch earlier this year calling for a restart of the 5G strategy to surpass China.

The standards for 5G technology were released last year, but the remaining standards are expected to be released later this month. Operators expect that the United States will not be able to achieve nationwide adoption of 5G until 2020.

The wireless industry promises that 5G can significantly improve network speed and mobile device reliability, fill the gap between wired broadband and wireless broadband, and stimulate some previously unimaginable new technologies and applications.

But why is it so important for the United States to build 5G networks before China? The benefits of 5G are obvious, but nowadays the broadband speed of American households is not the fastest in the world, and the speed and popularity of 4G are not global *, often even lagging behind Finland, Japan, and South Korea.

Since that's the case, why is it possible for a slight lag in the 5G feast to erode the economic advantage of the United States?

In a widely cited report released in 2016, Accenture estimated that the construction and maintenance of 5G networks would create 3 million jobs and increase GDP by $500 billion in the United States. But if China takes the lead in building a nationwide 5G network, will these positions be lost overseas?

Sanjay Dhar, Managing Director of Accenture who participated in the report writing work, believes that this may not necessarily be the case. Even if China wins in various 5G technologies, it won't be a zero sum game, "he said.

Telecommunications industry analyst Jeff Kagan said that the competition between China and the United States has motivated the US to develop 5G, but he believes that even if the US ranks second or third in this field, it will not have a significant long-term impact on the US economy. I believe that which country gains * is just a battle of self-awareness

On the one hand, the economies of these two countries are still interdependent. Even if China wins, American companies can still profit by selling technology to China.

Roger Entner, founder of Recon Analytics and co-author of the CTIA report, admits that if the United States launches 5G a few months later than China, there may not be much problem. Europe launched 2G at a faster speed, while Japan was the first to launch 3G, but this did not hinder Apple and Google from dominating the smartphone market.

However, Entner still believes that if China surpasses the United States in one or two years, it will undermine the competitiveness of the United States in the global technology market.

Mobile industry consultant Chetan Sharma stated that the launch of 3G networks in the United States in 2002 paved the way for the release of the iPhone and app market in 2007, which in turn drove significant investment in mobile computing. 4G technology was commercialized in the United States in 2011, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of smartphones and mobile applications.

Apps such as Instagram, Uber, and Lyft have also given the United States an advantage before their competitors in other countries grew larger.

Ultimately, it is the decisions of consumers and the private economy that truly determine the success or failure of technology. The reason why the United States "defeated" Europe and Japan is because Apple developed products that brought smartphones into the mainstream, because Google developed a globally popular mobile operating system that is free for people to use, and because Facebook developed a platform that allows people to constantly check their phones.

Some people are concerned that if China takes the lead in promoting 5G technology, Chinese companies will gain a first mover advantage and develop the next generation of high-tech products and services.

Entna stated that this is not a major concern in smaller countries such as South Korea, as Korean companies do not have enough market to test and refine their ideas. But China's massive population of up to 1.4 billion still provides an ideal place for enterprises to do large-scale production, which can then be exported to other countries.

For example, WeChat is not only an instant messaging service, but also provides products such as mobile payments, online banking, and car services. Western countries have been trying to emulate Tencent's success for many years.

Huawei has now become the world's leading infrastructure equipment provider, but they initially developed by serving the Chinese domestic market.

Gaining the * advantage in the 5G field can also bring another advantage to China's technology industry. 5G can not only accelerate network speed, but also increase capacity, thus contributing to the development of the Internet of Things.

All connected cars and various electronic devices can generate massive amounts of data, which can help China gain advantages in fields such as autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence.

The massive amount of data facilitated by 5G is crucial for training artificial intelligence algorithms, "said Paul Triolo, the technology director of Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm." Therefore, countries in the fields of device and application development will also have significant economic advantages

Provide wireless spectrum

Entner stated that there is indeed a probability of China and the United States exceeding one year, as the United States has not yet allocated sufficient wireless spectrum for the new network.

So far, the most advanced 5G technologies have focused on the "millimeter wave spectrum", which can achieve extremely fast speeds but has short transmission distances. This requires operators to deploy a large number of small antennas to cover 5G networks throughout the United States.

Operators are pushing the Federal Communications Commission to open up more mid frequency spectrum for 5G, allowing it to use large base stations as it does now. This can accelerate the deployment speed of 5G.

Some people are concerned that if sufficient mid frequency spectrum cannot be provided to operators, the 5G network launched in 2020 will not be able to cover the entire country.

The FCC plans to sell some mid frequency spectrum to operators through auctions in November this year, and officially began providing another batch of spectrum last month.

But the longer this process takes, the longer it will take for US operators to build a true 5G network. Entner said that it usually takes several years to launch * networks after the specific use of the new spectrum in the United States is determined.

By comparison, the Chinese government has opened up more mid frequency spectrum for 5G. This is also an important reason why CTIA's report considers China and South Korea to be "*" of the United States.

National security concerns

Concerns about China's involvement in the 5G field have also permeated into the realm of national security. Huawei's products are adopted by operators around the world. But the US government has always been concerned that Huawei will help the Chinese government monitor American citizens, businesses, and politicians.

Huawei has almost been banned by the United States. But if telecommunications equipment companies from the United States and its allies exit the market, American operators may have no choice but to purchase Huawei products.

American buyers will definitely continue to avoid Huawei's equipment and instead use products from American companies such as Cisco and Juniper, or European companies such as Ericsson and Nokia. But this will not pose too much of a challenge to Huawei's global position.

The entire 5G technology also follows a similar logic. Even if the United States wins the 5G war, it still cannot stop China.